پیش بینی قیمت سهام بر پایه فاکتورهای بنیادی، تکنیکال و اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دوره دکترای مهندسی مالی ، واحد رودهن ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، رودهن ، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه حسابداری ، واحد رودهن ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، رودهن ، ایران

3 استادیار ، گروه اقتصاد ، واحد رودهن ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، رودهن ، ایران ..

4 استاد تمام و عضو هیات علمی ، گروه آموزشی مدیریت و حسابداری ، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، تهران ، ایران.

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر پیش بینی قیمت سهام بر پایه فاکتورهای بنیادی، تکنیکال و اقتصادی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور سه گروه از عوامل بنیادی، تکنیکال و اقتصادی مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. در تحلیل داده ها از برازش رگرسیون های حداقل مربعات خطا برای داده های قیمت سهم 30 شرکت دارای بیش از 50% از ارزش بازار سهام در سال 1399 استفاده شد و قیمت سهام شرکت ها به صورت نامتوازن از سال 1381 تا 1399 مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که هریک از عوامل بنیادی، تکنیکال و اقتصادی به تنهایی قابلیت پیش بینی بازده سهام را دارند، در حالی که عوامل تکنیکال و اقتصادی ، دارای محتوای اطلاعاتی اضافی نسبت به عوامل بنیادی نبودند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of Stock Price Based on Fundamental, Technical and Economic Factors

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahdi Asghari 1
  • narges yazdanian 2
  • Bita Tabrizian 3
  • Fraydoon Rahnamay Roodposhti 4
1 Ph.D Student of financial engineering at Rudehen Islamic Azad University, Rudehen, Iran,
2 Assistant Professor at Rudehen Islamic Azad University, Rudehen, Iran,
3 Assistant Professor at Rudehen Islamic Azad University, Rudehen, Iran,
4 Faculty member of Islamic azad University, branch of Researches and sciences (Tehran) , Department of Faculty of Education and Counseling & Accountancy College, Professor,
چکیده [English]

In the present study, stock price forecasts were evaluated based on fundamental, technical and economic factors. For this purpose, three groups of fundamental, technical and economic factors were studied. In data analysis, fitting of least squares error regressions was used for the share price data of 30 companies with more than 50% of the stock market value in 2020 and the stock prices of companies were analyzed unbalanced from 2002 to 2020. The results showed that each of the fundamental, technical and economic factors alone can predict stock returns, while the technical and economic factors did not have additional information content than the fundamental factors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Stock Return
  • Fundamental Factors
  • Technical Factors
  • Economic Factors

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