دانش سرمایه‌گذاری

دانش سرمایه‌گذاری

گذار از پیش‌بینی نقطه‌ای به رتبه‌بندی زوجی در انتخاب مقطعی سهام: چارچوب تصمیم‌محور LSTM–RankNet با بهینه‌سازی فراپارامتریک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه مالی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد قم، قم، ایران
2 گروه مدیریت مالی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اسفراین، اسفراین، ایران
3 گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد قم، قم، ایران
چکیده
هدف: پژوهش حاضر شکاف میان تابع زیان آماری و هدف اقتصادی انتخاب سهام را بررسی می‌کند و می‌سنجد آیا رتبه‌بندی زوجی RankNet، در مقایسه‌ای هم‌شرط با رگرسیون نقطه‌ای مبتنی بر میانگین مربعات خطا، کیفیت انتخاب مقطعی و عملکرد خالص سبد را بهبود می‌دهد. همچنین، نقش تابع زیان مالی، بهینه‌سازی فراپارامتریک و اجزای معماری LSTM–RankNet تفکیک می‌شود.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: داده‌ها شامل ۴۶ نماد بازار سهام ایران طی ۲۶۱۸ روز معاملاتی از ۲۵ مارس ۲۰۱۵ تا ۲۵ فوریه ۲۰۲۶ است. جهان سهام از فهرست پایان دوره انتخاب نشد؛ در هر تاریخ تشکیل، معیارهای نسبت روزهای قابل معامله حداقل ۸۰ درصد، وقفه متوالی حداکثر ۳۰ روز معاملاتی، قرارگرفتن در دو دهک بالای ارزش بازار، شناوری آزاد حداقل ۱۵ درصد و سقف ۲۵ درصد برای سهم هر صنعت با اطلاعات همان تاریخ اعمال شد. اتحاد نمادهای واجد شرایط، جهان مادر را ساخت و ماسک روزانه، عضویت فعال و قابلیت معامله را زمان‌متغیر نگه داشت. چهار هدف MSE، RankNet، Sharpe-only و Combined با هزینه معامله ۰٫۴ درصد و ده بذر مشترک مقایسه شدند.
یافته‌ها: میانگین نسبت شارپ خالص RankNet برابر ۱٫۳۱۴ و برای MSE برابر ۱٫۱۰۸ بود. RankNet در هر ده بذر از MSE بهتر عمل کرد و اختلاف ۰٫۲۰۶ واحدی با ۰٫۰۰۲=p معنادار بود. مدل Combined نیز از MSE و RankNet بهتر بود؛ بااین‌حال، Sharpe-only با نسبت شارپ ۳٫۸۱۹ از Combined با ۲٫۷۸۴ فراتر رفت. در تحلیل حساسیت تک‌اجرایی، حذف HPO نسبت شارپ آزمون را از ۲٫۷۵۰ به ۱٫۰۳۰ کاهش داد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

From Point Prediction to Pairwise Ranking in Cross-Sectional Stock Selection: A Decision-Focused, Hyperparameter-Optimized LSTM–RankNet Framework

نویسندگان English

kazem dehnad 1
Meysam Doaie 2
Mojgan Safa 3
Reza Gholami Jamkarani 3
1 Department of Financial, Qom Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran
2 Department of Financial Management, Islamic Azad University, Esfarayen Branch, Esfarayen, Iran
3 Department of Accounting, Qom Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran
چکیده English

Objective: This study examines the gap between the statistical loss function and the economic objective of stock selection, and assesses whether pairwise RankNet ranking—in a controlled comparison with pointwise mean squared error regression—improves cross-sectional selection quality and net portfolio performance. The roles of the financial loss function, hyperparameter optimization, and the components of the LSTM–RankNet architecture are also disentangled.

Methodology: The data comprise 46 symbols from the Iranian stock market over 2,618 trading days, from March 25, 2015 to February 25, 2026. The stock universe was not selected from an end-of-period list; at each formation date, the following criteria were applied using same-date information: a minimum tradable-days ratio of 80%, a maximum consecutive gap of 30 trading days, membership in the top two market-capitalization deciles, a minimum free float of 15%, and a 25% cap on the share of any single industry. The union of eligible symbols formed the parent universe, and a daily mask kept membership and tradability time-varying. Four objectives—MSE, RankNet, Sharpe-only, and Combined—were compared under a 0.4% transaction cost and ten shared seeds.

Findings: The average net Sharpe ratio of RankNet was 1.314, versus 1.108 for MSE. RankNet outperformed MSE in all ten seeds, and the 0.206-unit difference was significant at p = 0.002. The Combined model also outperformed both MSE and RankNet; however, Sharpe-only, with a Sharpe ratio of 3.819, surpassed Combined’s 2.784. In the single-run sensitivity analysis, removing HPO reduced the test Sharpe ratio from 2.750 to 1.030; yet, since this comparison was not replicated across independent seeds, the result is descriptive and does not suffice for generalizable inference about the HPO effect. The conservative DSR also did not fully rule out multiple-selection risk.

Originality/Value: The study’s contribution lies in providing a controlled comparison among pointwise, pairwise, and financial objectives in an emerging market, and in separating the “objective-alignment value” from the “architectural-complexity value.” The results indicate that the shift from pointwise prediction to decision-oriented learning is warranted, but that combining all deep components is not necessarily the optimal solution.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Cross-sectional stock selection
decision-focused learning
pairwise ranking
LSTM&ndash
RankNet
hyperparameter optimization
  1. Akiba, T., Sano, S., Yanase, T., Ohta, T., & Koyama, M. (2019). Optuna: A next-generation hyperparameter optimization framework. In Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining (pp. 2623–2631). ACM.
  2. Alzaman, C. (2024). Deep learning in stock portfolio selection and predictions. Expert Systems with Applications, 237, 121404.
  3. Alzaman, C. (2025). Optimizing portfolio selection through stock ranking and matching: A reinforcement learning approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 269, 126430.
  4. Bae, H., Park, M., Jeon, H., & Kim, W. C. (2026). A decision-focused learning framework for goal-based investing. Quantitative Finance, 26(1), 1–13.
  5. Bailey, D. H., & López de Prado, M. (2014). The deflated Sharpe ratio: Correcting for selection bias, backtest overfitting, and non-normality. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 40(5), 94–107.
  6. Bergstra, J., & Bengio, Y. (2012). Random search for hyper-parameter optimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 13, 281–305.
  7. Best, M. J., & Grauer, R. R. (1991). On the sensitivity of mean-variance-efficient portfolios to changes in asset means. The Review of Financial Studies, 4(2), 315–342.
  8. Brown, S. J., Goetzmann, W. N., Ibbotson, R. G., & Ross, S. A. (1992). Survivorship bias in performance studies. The Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), 553–580.
  9. Burges, C., Shaked, T., Renshaw, E., Lazier, A., Deeds, M., Hamilton, N., & Hullender, G. (2005). Learning to rank using gradient descent. In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Machine Learning (pp. 89–96). ACM.
  10. Cao, Z., Qin, T., Liu, T.-Y., Tsai, M.-F., & Li, H. (2007). Learning to rank: From pairwise approach to listwise approach. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Machine Learning (pp. 129–136). ACM.
  11. Cont, R. (2001). Empirical properties of asset returns: Stylized facts and statistical issues. Quantitative Finance, 1(2), 223–236.
  12. DeMiguel, V., Garlappi, L., & Uppal, R. (2009). Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy? The Review of Financial Studies, 22(5), 1915–1953.
  13. Donti, P., Amos, B., & Kolter, J. Z. (2017). Task-based end-to-end model learning in stochastic optimization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 30 (pp. 5490–5500).
  14. Elmachtoub, A. N., & Grigas, P. (2022). Smart predict, then optimize. Management Science, 68(1), 9–26.
  15. Fischer, T., & Krauss, C. (2018). Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions. European Journal of Operational Research, 270(2), 654–669.
  16. Gu, S., Kelly, B., & Xiu, D. (2020). Empirical asset pricing via machine learning. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(5), 2223–2273.
  17. Hochreiter, S., & Schmidhuber, J. (1997). Long short-term memory. Neural Computation, 9(8), 1735–1780.
  18. Li, Y., & Tan, Z. (2021). Stock portfolio selection with Deep RankNet. The Journal of Financial Data Science, 3(3), 108–120.
  19. Lo, A. W. (2004). The adaptive markets hypothesis. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 30(5), 15–29.
  20. López de Prado, M. (2018). Advances in financial machine learning. Wiley.
  21. Ma, Y., Mao, R., Lin, Q., Wu, P., & Cambria, E. (2024). Quantitative stock portfolio optimization by multi-task learning risk and return. Information Fusion, 104, 102165.
  22. Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91.
  23. Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is optimized optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31–42.
  24. Poh, D., Lim, B., Zohren, S., & Roberts, S. (2021). Building cross-sectional systematic strategies by learning to rank. The Journal of Financial Data Science, 3(2), 70–86.
  25. Shumway, T. (1997). The delisting bias in CRSP data. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 327–340.
  26. Snoek, J., Larochelle, H., & Adams, R. P. (2012). Practical Bayesian optimization of machine learning algorithms. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25 (pp. 2951–2959).
  27. Zhang, Z., Zohren, S., & Roberts, S. (2020). Deep learning for portfolio optimization. The Journal of Financial Data Science, 2(4), 8–20.

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 22 شهریور 1405