Future scenarios of the banking industry

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
morteza TAVAKOL 1
Akbar Etebarian 2
Amirhushang Heidari 3
Amirreza Naghsh 4
1 Student of Public Management, Islamic Azad University Isfahan Branch (Khorasgan), Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Management, Islamic Azad University Isfahan Branch (Khorasgan), Isfahan, Iran
3 Faculty member and director of the Department of Future Studies of Science and Technology, Scientific Policy Research Center of Ministry of Science Research and Technology, Tehran, Iran
4 assistant professor, Department of Management, Islamic Azad University Isfahan Branch (Khorasgan), Isfahan, Iran
Abstract
Changes in customer needs, behaviors and expectations,Trends in digital technology, banking business trends and the emergence of non-bank competitors (fintech), intensifying market competition between banks and non-bank credit institutions, changing pricing models and costs of banking services, changing the ecosystem of banking activities and rules and The new regulations have challenged banks. The advent of distributed networks such as blockchain, by creating transparency in transactions and open participation in operations, has moved the banking and business processes towards an automated, coordinated and unreliable global framework; While aiming to reduce intermediaries, it also warns banks of the risk of eliminating banks or reducing customers. The present study examines the banking industry by asking the question "What are the future scenarios of the Iranian banking industry?" with library studies and combining two qualitative and quantitative approaches, "Schwartz critical uncertainties" and "Cross impact analysis" and constructing four scenarios: "Phoenix Rises" "Busy Architects-Drugs Awake" "Farang City" and "Burnt City", and analysis of factors and drivers affecting the banking industry, pave the way for charting the future of the country's banking industry and creating and maintaining their competitive advantage has done.
Keywords
"Scenario writing"
"blockchain"
"sustainable supply chain"
"future drivers of the banking industry"
digital mining"
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