دانش سرمایه‌گذاری

دانش سرمایه‌گذاری

مدل‌سازی ریسک‌های زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع نفتی-پتروشیمی و شیمیایی (رویکرد مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری بیزین و حداقل مربعات وزنی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
علی جباری 1
اله کرم صالحی 2
سعید قانع 3
1 گروه مدیریت، واحد مسجدسلیمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مسجدسلیمان، ایران
2 گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد مسجدسلیمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مسجدسلیمان، ایران
3 گروه مدیریت،واحد مسجدسلیمان،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مسجدسلیمان،ایران
10.30495/jik.2024.77521.4515
چکیده
هدف تحقیق حاضر ارائه مدلی برای ریسک‌های زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع نفتی-پتروشیمی و شیمیایی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران با استفاده از رویکردهای مبتنی بر میانگین‌گیری بیزین است. بازه زمانی تحقیق حاضر 1390 تا 1401 است. در این تحقیق از اطلاعات 54 شرکت شیمیایی و 19 شرکت پتروشیمی فعال در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران استفاده شده است. جهت تعیین مدل بهینه از رویکرد میانگین‌گیری بیزین و حداقل مربعات وزنی بهره گرفته شده است. بر اساس نتایج از میان مدل‌های BMA، TVP-DMA،TVP-DMS، WALS جهت شناسایی مهم‌ترین ریسک‌های سیستماتیک و غیرسیستماتیک موثر بر زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع منتخب، مدل BMA از بالاترین کارایی برخوردار بود. از 99 ریسک شناسایی شده (77 ریسک غیرسیستماتیک، 22 ریسک سیستماتیک)؛ 23 ریسک غیرشکننده موثر بر زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع شیمیایی و پتروشیمی شناسایی شد. بر اساس نتایج 16/16 درصد از کل ریسک‌های غیرسیستماتیک و 07/7 درصد از کل ریسک‌های غیرسیستماتیک به عنوان متغیرهای غیرشکننده موثر بر زنجیره ‌تأمین صنایع منتخب بودند. با توجه به اینکه نسبت معناداری ریسک سیستماتیک بر زنجیره ‌تأمین از ریسک غیرسیستماتیک بالاتر است؛ ثبات فضای اقتصادی و کسب و کار، حکمرانی خوب و فضای سیاسی نسبت به ثبات مدیریتی باید در دستور کار قرار بگیرد. در نتیجه افزایش سطح نظارتی دولت به جایگزینی نقش شرکت‌داری نقش بسزایی در بهبود عملکرد زنجیره ‌تأمین دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
زنجیره تأمین
ریسک سیستماتیک و غیرسیستماتیک
پتروشیمی و شیمیایی
بیزین

عنوان مقاله English

Modeling the Supply Chain Risks of Oil-Petrochemical and Chemical Industries (Bayesian Models Averaging and weighted least squares approach)

نویسندگان English

Ali Jabbari 1
Allah Karam Salehi 2
Saeed Ghane 3
1 Department of management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran
2 Department of Financial Management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran
3 Department of Management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran
چکیده English

The purpose of this research is to present a model for supply chain risks of petroleum, petrochemical and chemical industries in Tehran Stock Exchange using approaches based on Bayesian averaging. The period of the current research is 2011 to 2022. In this research, the information of 54 chemical companies and 19 petrochemical companies active in Tehran Stock Exchange has been used. In order to determine the optimal model, Bayesian averaging and weighted least squares have been used. Based on the results of the BMA, TVP-DMA, TVP-DMS, WALS models to identify the most important systematic and unsystematic risks affecting the supply chain of the petrochemical and chemical industries, the BMA model had the highest efficiency. Of the 99 risks identified in the form of 77 unsystematic risks and 22 systematic risks; 23 non-fragile risks affecting the supply chain of chemical and petrochemical industries were identified. Based on the results, 16 out of 77 indicators affecting unsystematic risk (20.7% of all unsystematic risks) and 7 out of 22 systematic risk indicators (27.27% of all unsystematic risks) affect the supply chain of these industries. Considering that the significant ratio of systematic risk on the supply chain is higher than unsystematic risk; The stability of the economic and business environment, good governance and political environment should be on the agenda in relation to management stability. As a result, increasing the government's regulatory level to replace the role of corporations plays a significant role in improving the performance of the supply chain.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Supply Chain
Systematic and Unsystematic Risk
Petrochemical and Chemical
Bayesian
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