Modeling the Supply Chain Risks of Oil-Petrochemical and Chemical Industries (Bayesian Models Averaging and weighted least squares approach)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ali Jabbari 1
Allah Karam Salehi 2
Saeed Ghane 3
1 Department of management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran
2 Department of Financial Management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran
3 Department of Management, Masjed-Soleiman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Masjed-Soleiman, Iran
10.30495/jik.2024.77521.4515
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to present a model for supply chain risks of petroleum, petrochemical and chemical industries in Tehran Stock Exchange using approaches based on Bayesian averaging. The period of the current research is 2011 to 2022. In this research, the information of 54 chemical companies and 19 petrochemical companies active in Tehran Stock Exchange has been used. In order to determine the optimal model, Bayesian averaging and weighted least squares have been used. Based on the results of the BMA, TVP-DMA, TVP-DMS, WALS models to identify the most important systematic and unsystematic risks affecting the supply chain of the petrochemical and chemical industries, the BMA model had the highest efficiency. Of the 99 risks identified in the form of 77 unsystematic risks and 22 systematic risks; 23 non-fragile risks affecting the supply chain of chemical and petrochemical industries were identified. Based on the results, 16 out of 77 indicators affecting unsystematic risk (20.7% of all unsystematic risks) and 7 out of 22 systematic risk indicators (27.27% of all unsystematic risks) affect the supply chain of these industries. Considering that the significant ratio of systematic risk on the supply chain is higher than unsystematic risk; The stability of the economic and business environment, good governance and political environment should be on the agenda in relation to management stability. As a result, increasing the government's regulatory level to replace the role of corporations plays a significant role in improving the performance of the supply chain.
Keywords
Supply Chain
Systematic and Unsystematic Risk
Petrochemical and Chemical
Bayesian
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