Evaluating the Relationship between Digital Currencies and Stock Market Indices (VAR Regression Approach)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 PhD student, Department of Financial Engineering, Faculty of Humanities, Qods City Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Islamic Azad University, Shahr-Qods Branch, Shahr-Qods, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Payam Noor University, Iran.
10.30495/jik.2024.23763
Abstract
Today, with the presence of digital currencies in the world, many people keep their funds and assets in the form of digital currency. Studying the research literature shows that digital currencies are related to stock market indices. Based on this, the current research was conducted with the aim of evaluating the relationship between digital currencies and stock market indices. For this purpose, the present study was evaluated by VAR regression method. The time period under study is daily from 07/08/2015 to 12/30/2020. The geographical area of this research is the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this research, 4 regression models were estimated to evaluate the relationship between digital currencies and stock market indices. Based on the results, the two-way relationship between the fluctuations of digital currencies and stock market indices was confirmed. In general, the fluctuations of stock market indices have a positive effect on the fluctuations of digital currencies, and among digital currencies, the fluctuations of Bitcoin have a great impact on the fluctuations of stock market indices.
Keywords

دادگر، یدالله، فهیمی فر، فاطمه، نظری، روح الله، (1399)، بررسی همزمانی سیکل­های نرخ ارز با قیمت نفت، قیمت طلا و ارزش سهام در ایران با استفاده از الگوی مارکف-سوئیچینگ با ساختار مولفه­ای، اقتصاد و الگوسازی، شماره 43، صص 193-151.
سوری، علی، (1394)، اقتصاد سنجی همراه با کاربرد Eviews8 و Stata12، نشر فرهنگ شناسی.
عسکری، سجاد، (1400)، نسبت شناسی ارز و رمز ارز در نظام تقنینی ایران، حقوقی دادگستری، دوره 85، شماره 113، صص 283-263.
فطرس، محمدحسن، هوشیدری، مریم، (1397)، ارتباط­های پویا بین قیمت نفت، قیمت طلا و نرخ ارز با شاخص سهام بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی، جلد 14، شماره 58، صص 116-89.
قوام، محمدحسین، (1397)، بیت کوین: پایان کار ناتمام تحریم‌ها، تأملات رشد، شماره 1، صص 201- 198.
Adebola, S.S., Gil-Alana, L. & Madigu, G. (2019). Gold prices and the cryptocurrencies: Evidence of convergence and cointegration, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 523, 1227-1236.
Blau, B.M., 2017. Price dynamics and speculative trading in bitcoin. Res. Int. Bus. Finance 41, 493–499.
Branger, N, Kraft, H, Meinerding, C (2009), What is the Impact of Stock Market Contagion on an Investor's Portfolio Choice? , Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 45, Issue 1.
Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R., Tiwari, A.K., Olayeni, O.R., 2016. What drives Bitcoin price. Econ. Bull. 36 (2), 843–850.
Bouri, E., Moln_ar, P., Azzi, G., Roubaud, D., Hagfors, L.I., 2017. On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: is it really more than a diversifier? Finance Res. Lett. 20, 192–198.
Bouri, E., Lucey, B., Roubaud, D., 2020a. Cryptocurrencies and the downside risk in equity investments. Finance Res. Lett. 33, 101211.
Conlon, T., McGee, R., 2020. Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the COVID-19 bear market. Finance Res. Lett., 101607.
Corbet, S., Lucey, B., Urquhart, A., Yarovaya, L., 2019. Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal. 62, 182–199.
Cross, J.L., Hou, C. & Trinh, K. (2021). Returns, volatility and the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017–18, Economic Modelling, 104.
Dyhrberg, A.H., 2016. Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold? Finance Res. Lett. 16, 139–144.
Hegerty, Scott W (2016), Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,Vol. 35.
Jareno, F., Gonzalez, M., Lopez, R. & Ramos, A.R. (2021). Cryptocurrencies and oil price shocks: A NARDL analysis in the COVID-19 pandemic, Resources Policy, 74.
Jiang, Y., Lie, J., Wang, J. & Mu, J. (2021). Revisiting the roles of cryptocurrencies in stock markets: A quantile coherency perspective, Economic Modelling, 95, 21-34.
Kristoufek, L., 2015. What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price? Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis. Article PloS One 10 (4), e0123923.
Lahmiri, S., Bekiros, S., 2020. The impact of COVID-19 pandemic upon stability and sequential irregularity of equity and cryptocurrency markets. Chaos Solitons Fract., 109936.
Quamara, S. & Singh, A.K. (2022). A systematic survey on security concerns in cryptocurrencies: State-of-the-art and perspectives, Computers & Security, 113.
Sharif, A., Aloui, C., Yarovaya, L., 2020. COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal., 101496.
Vidal-Tomas, (2021). The entry and exit dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, Research in International Business and Finance, 58.
Wang, H., Wang, X., Yin, S. & Ji, H. (2021). The asymmetric contagion effect between stock market and cryptocurrency market, Finance Research Letters.
Yermack, D., 2013. Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? an Economic Appraisal. No. w19747 available at:. National Bureau of Economic Research http://www.nber.org/papers/w 19747.pdf.
Zhang, Yue. Jun. Sun (2016), The dynamic volatility spillover between European carbon trading market and fossil energy market, Journal of Cleaner Production,Vol. 112, Part 4.