Presenting a prediction model for the formation of zombie companies, emphasizing the role of the government and the quality of profit, a test of political economy theory

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
hiva mohammadi 1
Zahra Lashgari 2
HAMIDREZA KORDLOUIE 3
1 Department of Accounting, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Accounting, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management & Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Financial Management, Islamshahr branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
10.22034/jik.2025.24231
Abstract
The research conducted by the International Monetary Fund in 2023 shows that during the last two decades, the share of unproductive and unsustainable companies - zombies - is increasing all over the world. Given the need for government support for companies to mitigate the negative shock to the economy during the Covid-19 pandemic, zombie companies may have been helped to survive in the midst of public support provided to companies to cope with severe losses. stay and as a result avoid the possible bankruptcy process or delay it, which will eventually reduce the overall productivity, investment and employment. In this regard, tracking and the reasons for the formation of zombie companies, considering its macro financial and economic consequences for the rest of the economy, is vital. Therefore, in this research, an attempt has been made to provide a model for predicting the zombification of companies by emphasizing the role of the government and the quality of profit, and looking at the theory of political economy. For this purpose, the government intervention index was measured through the percentage of shares owned by the government and state-affiliated companies and the quality of profit through the two dimensions of profit management and profit sustainability, and the required data from financial statements. The companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2019 to 2019 have been obtained, the significance level for each variable and also for the whole model has been calculated at the confidence level of 95% and according to the determination coefficient of McFadden and The significance level of the z statistic, the research model has been estimated. The results of the research indicate that the existence of a significant influence of government intervention and profit stability on the formation Zombie of companies is not confirmed, while the significant influence of profit management on the criterion of formation Zombie of companies was confirmed.
Keywords
Zombie companies
government intervention
profit quality
political economy theory
1.       ایزد­ی­نیا، ناصر و امیر رسائیان و علی­اصغر رضایی­رجایی، 1391، بررسی رابطه هموارسازی سود با ابزارهای حاکمیت شرکتی و نقدشوندگی سهام، فصلنامه برنامه­ریزی و بودجه، سال هفدهم، شماره 3، صفحه­های 53-77.
2.       پوراحمدی، حسین، ایوب کریمی 1396، اقتصاد سیاسی جهانی نظریه‌های معاصر/ رونن پالان، تهران، مهاجر.
3.       ثقفی، علی و قاسم بلو. (1388). «هزینه حقوق صاحبان سهام و ویژگیهای سـود»، تحقیقات حسابداری، شماره 2، صفحه­های2 -16.
4.       رضایی، فرزین و ثریا ویسی حصار(1393)، اثر روابط سیاسی با دولت بر رابطة بین تمرکز مالکیت با کیفیت گزارشگری مالی و هزینۀ سهام عادی، بررسی­های حسابداری و حسابرسی، دوره 21، شماره پیاپی 4 صفحه­های 449-470.
5.       رهنورد، راضیه، عبدالرضا محسنی و فضل­اله لک(1396)، رابطه بین ارتباطات سیاسی و عملکرد شرکت­های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، کنفرانس ملی تحقیقات علمی جهان در مدیریت،حسابداری، حقوق و علوم اجتماعی.
6.       زرین، جعفر، بابک جمشیدی نوید مهرداد قنبری افشین باغفلکی(1398)،تدوین الگوی پیش بینی ورشکستگی شرکت های دولتی با استفاده از متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی، مدیریتی، مالی و سیاسی، حسابداری دولتی سال هفتم پاییز و زمستان 1399 شماره 1 (پیاپی 13)، صفحه­های 79-96.
7.       شیرزادی، رضا، 1389، برنامه های توسعه در ایران بعد از انقلاب اسلامی، علوم سیاسی، شماره 11،  صفحه­های 29–43.
8.     صالحی، مهدی؛ بذرگر، حمید. (1394)، رابطه بین کیفیت سود و ریسک ورشکستگی. راهبرد مدیریت مالی، 3(1)، صفحه­های 113-140.
9.       مصلی­نژاد، عباس،1395، اقتصاد سیاسی ایران، تهران، دانشگاه تهران.
10.   نیکومرام، هاشم،. بنی­مهد، بهمن،. رهنمای رودپشتی، فریدون،. و کیائی، علی. (1392)، دیدگاه اقتصاد سیاسی و مدیریت سود، فصلنامة حسابداری مدیریت، 6(18)، صفحه­های 43-31.
11.   حیدری، محمدرضا و دیگران. .1395«دلالت­های اقتصاد نهادگرای جدید برای تجویز دولت مطلوب در الگوی اسلامی – ایرانی پیشرفت». اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه­ای. شماره 12، صفحه­های.152-169
 
 
12.  Agustia, D., Pratama, N., Muhammad, A., Permatasari, Y. (2020). Earnings management, business strategy, and bankruptcy risk: evidence from Indonesia, Heliyon 6 (2020) e03317.
13.  Ahearne, A., Shinada, N., 2005. Zombie firms and economic stagnation in Japan. Int.
14.  Aning Sejati,Y.2009,Political connections and earnings quality : evidence from Malaysia .phd dissertation,Oklahoma state university
15.  Braam,Geert MonomitaNandy., UtzWeitzel., SumanLodh (2015) Accrual-based and real earnings management and political connections, The International Journal of Accounting Volume 50, Issue 2, June 2015, Pages 111-141.
16.  Chang ,Q, Yisihong, Z, Guangqiang, L, Di, W .and Xiaojie, Zh,(2020), How does government intervention affect the formation of zombie firms? https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.017.
17.  Cheng, H., Hu, D.Z., 2016. The mystery of the existence of “zombie firms”: empirical evidence. Journal of Macro-quality  Research (1),7-25.
18.  Dechow, P. and Dichev, I. (2002). The Quality of Accruals and Earnings, the Role of Accruals in Estimation Errors. The Accounting Review, 77, 35-59
19.  Econ. Econ. Pol. (4), 363–381.
20.  Favara, G., C. Minoiu, and A. Perez (2022). Zombie Lending to U.S. firms. Available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=4065886, SSRN.
21.  Finance (40), 191–203.
22.  Francies,I.Lafond,R.Olsson,P.Schipper,K.(2008)." earnings quality and the pricing effects of earnings patterns", working paper duke university,p.53.
23.  Imai, K, 2016. A panel study of zombie SMEs in Japan: Identification, borrowing and investment behavior. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. (39), 91-107
24.  Jaskowski, M., 2015. Should zombie lending always Be prevented? Int. Rev. Econ.
25.  Kane, E.J., 1987. Dangers of capital forbearance: the case of the FSLIC and “zombie” S&Ls. Contemp. Econ. Pol. 5 (1), 77–83.
26.  Kwon, H., Narita, F., Narita, M., 2015. Resource reallocation and zombie lending in Japan in the 1990s. Rev. Econ. Dynam. (4), 709–732.
27.  Luan, Q., Luo, S.G., Xiong, Q., Luo, J., 2018. Can government R&D subsidies save zombie
28.  misallocation of credit in Japan. Am. Econ. Rev. (4), 1144–1166.
29.  Peek, J., Rosengren, E.S., 2005. Unnatural selection: perverse incentives and the
30.  Schipper, K, (1989), “Earning Management”, Accounting Horizons, PP. 91-102.
31.  Schipper, K. and Vincent, L. (2003) . Earnings quality, Accounting Horizons, Vol. 17 (supplement) , pp. 97-110.
32.  Song, J.B., Su, Z.H., Wang, D.H., (2019). Government subsidies and the formation of
33.  States since 2007. J. Econ. Perspect. (3), 177–201.
34.  Ueda, K., 2012. Deleveraging and monetary policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United
35.  Velury,U. and  Jenkins,D.(2006),Institutional ownership and the quality of earnings Journal of Business Research, 2006, vol. 59, issue 9, 1043-1051
36.  Vintil,G,and Stefan,C, (2014), “The Impact of Ownership Concentration on Firm Value”, Empiricalstudy of the Bucharest Stock Exchange listed companies.Procedia Economics and Finance, 15, PP. 271 – 279
37.  Wang, L.G., Gao, Y.Q., 2014. Establishing and perfecting market exit mechanism to resolve overcapacity effectively. Macroeconomics (10), 8–21.
38.  Xu Wei, Kun Wang and Asokan Anandarajan, (2012), “Quality of Reported Earnings by Chinese Firms: The Influence of Ownership Structure”, Advances in Accounting, incorporating Advances in International Accounting 28, PP. 193-199.
39.  Zhu,h, Fan, H, Shennan, W, Qianlin,Y. and Chen Liang (2019). Zombie Firms and Debt Accumulation: A Theoretical Framework and Chinese Experience, Vol27, Issue6, Pages 104-126.